Matt Harmon Fantasy analyst Wed, October 21, 2026 at 9:21 PM UTC · 9 min read About Our Ads Advertisement Advertisement Advertisement Fantasy football analyst Matt Harmon highlights the most concentrated passing games in the sport — these are the teams letting it fly to just a couple of players at most.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba has a 35.1% target share in the Seahawks offense and a 49.2% air yard share, both leading the NFL. It's wild that every lifeform in the Solar System knows where the ball is going when Seattle drops back to pass, and no one can stop the guy. That is also with the team accounting for extra defensive attention to JSN — please ignore any weird narratives to the contrary.
Seattle faces a ton of cloud and two-high coverage with press corners on the receiver at the line. It doesn't matter; Smith-Njigba is the best route runner in the NFL right now and always finds voids and earns separation.
All of this is as the Seahawks quarterback, Sam Darnold, ranks 26th in adjusted net yards per attempt. He's struggled to start the season. You can make a credible argument that the lack of a second pitch emerging in the passing game is part of why they've struggled to move the ball with any level of consistency through the air. Obviously, fantasy managers don't care.
I don't see this changing for Seattle. Smith-Njigba earns every bit of his volume and for the most part, we know who these versions of Cooper Kupp (13% target share), Rashid Shaheed (14%) and A.J. Barner (12.8%) are. The only guy who could make this interesting is Year 2 wideout Tory Horton, but he's struggled to stay healthy and gather momentum.
Drake London leads the team with a 29% target share and Bijan Robinson comes in second at 16.7%. The team's concentration really shows in the air yards department, as the first two players account for a whopping 76.9%, the highest combined figure for a duo in the NFL. London leads the way at 43.7% but it's obviously not Robinson in second, nor is it Kyle Pitts Sr. (13.2%); reclamation wide receiver Jahan Dotson is behind London with a 33.2% share.
Since Michael Penix Jr. got into the lineup in Week 3, London is the WR7 in fantasy football. Dotson is a perfectly respectable WR31 with 206 catches and a pair of touchdowns on eight receptions.
I love this. Dotson was a prospect I was high on coming into the league, who showed flashes but fell out of favor in Washington and was buried behind star wideouts in Philadelphia. I've kept the candle lit for him to eventually turn into a useful rotational receiver and it looks like we've at least arrived there.
It's happening for Dotson in a far different fashion than I imagined. He's the team's primary vertical X-receiver with a 17.6 air yards per target mark with Penix under center. With that role, and both Robinson and Pitts working underneath, London should continue to hold the dominant target position at the intermediate level.
No shock that the Cowboys duo finds themselves this high. CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens account for 50.4% of the targets and 71.5% of the air yards, both second-highest among NFL teams.
Lamb is having an elite season as the WR3 overall but this is a reminder that things haven't totally evaporated for Pickens (WR25). He's averaging a respectable 71 yards per game but has only scored once. Pickens is a volatile player in a hyper-volatile role; nothing about the rocky ride has been too shocking.
The impotence of the Cowboys offense over the last two games and some of their issues against heavy blitzes have been a bit more troubling and unexpected. I tend to think that will even itself out, as Dak Prescott has historically been excellent against the blitz.
From Weeks 8 to 11, the Cowboys face the Cardinals, Colts, 49ers and Titans. I'd be shocked if that pocket of the season doesn't contain several big games from Pickens. He may go down as a small-loss player from his Round 2 fantasy ADP but he's still a WR2 in lineups every week.
For dynasty sickos and waiver-wire grinders, I really like Ryan Flournoy's game. He is third on the team in target and air-yard share with real man-coverage route chops. If Pickens moves on in free agency, Flournoy could be this team's WR2 and would inherit a ton of volume if Lamb were to miss time in a Pickens-less scenario.
The Titans are the 31st-ranked unit in the NFL in my offensive efficiency metrics blend. So, we can't expect consistent production unless Cam Ward takes a massive step forward. The good news is that rookie Carnell Tate is getting alpha-level volume.
Tate and Wan'Dale Robinson combine for 49% of the targets, the sixth-highest mark for a duo. Tate leads the way with 26.7% but he has a commanding lead in the air yards department. His 47.7% share of the team's targets is second behind only Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
To my eye test, Tate has looked the part in isolation. He's made a few rookie mistakes but separates at all levels and wins against man coverage. His ball-tracking and timing at the catch point are getting even better. He leads all rookie wideouts with 1.95 yards per route run. If the ecosystem ever catches up, Tate is going to be highly productive. For now, just look for spike weeks in favorable matchups.
The Lions are our first team on the list where the split starts to spread out. The top three guys on the team combined for 68.1% of the team's targets, which is the second-highest rate in the league.
Amon-Ra St. Brown (30.3%) leads the way, with Sam LaPorta (19.7%) and Jahmyr Gibbs (18.1%) close behind. However, since those guys are short-area targets, Jameson Williams actually leads the team with a 31.1% share of the team's air yards. He just doesn't get enough layup looks to be a consistent option. St. Brown is second with 30.1%, but Isaac TeSlaa comes in third with 17%, ahead of the tight end and running back.
Regardless of how strange the splits look from downfield, the Lions almost never throw the ball to anyone besides these five guys. And TeSlaa only owns a 10% target share. The math ends up working out for everyone in the top four to be involved, and live for big games on a weekly basis, with Williams being the roughest one to predict.
The Packers are one of eight teams with three or fewer players to get more than 10% of the team's targets. The Titans and the next two teams we will discuss are on the list.
For Green Bay, it's Matthew Golden (25.8%), Christian Watson (21.7%) and Tucker Kraft (16.7%) in the passing game — and that is it. It likely wouldn't be this concentrated if Jayden Reed wasn't out for the season but the Packers were still intent on cutting out their wide receiver rotation. They followed through.
In the air yard department, Golden and Watson own a massive 74.5% share. That trails only Atlanta as a duo and Golden's 41% still ranks eighth-highest league-wide. He has been one of the biggest breakouts of the 2026 season. His tape isn't flawless but more than passes the test for this to be "earned." I'm buying that he continues at this pace and you can argue he's already emerged as this team's best wideout.
The Saints lead the NFL in seconds per play and are third in plays per game overall, while slotting in around average in offensive rankings. That's quietly a fantasy goldmine, especially in a passing game that's particularly concentrated.
The top three players on the Saints account for 85% of the air yards, the third-highest rate in that category. Bryce Lance is the third player there and he has an 8.9% target share, as Juwan Johnson is the real complementary piece behind Chris Olave and Devaughn Vele.
Olave is getting elite-level volume, with 27.1% of targets and 43.4% of air yards. He's been excellent and is performing at the level of a top-10 real-life NFL receiver. Vele has emerged as a solid big-slot starter and a reliable option.
It will be fascinating to see how the distribution shakes out when rookie Jordyn Tyson gets in the mix. My guess is they'll ease him in, since these hamstring issues have been a major concern; the Saints should be cautious. Either way, once he's fully rolling, he likely spreads out the work from Vele down the tree. Olave is too good to cede anything.
The Giants have a really fun duo working together in wideout Malik Nabers and tight end Isaiah Likely. They combine to see a whopping 58.3% of the targets, the highest rate among pass-catchers.
The air yard distribution is a bit tighter — 54.8% is toward the middle of the league — because Nabers was getting layup looks to increase his comfort as he was working back from an injury. Meanwhile, guys like Malachi Fields and Darnell Mooney have seen real air-yard volume because they get shot plays, but not a consistent target total. I like what Fields has shown as a gritty complementary option but I don't think he'll ever carve out a big target share. Nabers and Likely will be secure there.
Now, all of these guys are about to experience a quarterback change.
J.J. McCarthy got in the game and ripped off some hollow stats in a comeback mode that did at least come close to making the Saints sweat. He averaged over 10 air yards per attempt. Hopefully he continues to play with that level of aggressiveness, as he has two credible options in Nabers and Likely who do their damage over the middle. Either way, Jameis Winston was a net negative for the offense, so it was time to get a look at someone else.
Source: Sports
0 Comments